The impact of plain tobacco packaging on tax revenues in France

What would be the impact on tax revenues of a requirement that tobacco products be sold only in pain packaging? In the context of a study on behalf of JTI, MAPP modeled the effect of plain packaging on the market. By reducing the scope for product differentiation, plain packaging would cause a shift towards cheaper brands and a decrease in the price of more expensive brands. This consequence, combined with a shift towards the parallel market, would cause tax revenues to fall by an amount that can be estimated between 400 million and 3.5 billion euros, according the the modeling assumptions.

The study can be downloaded at the following address:

 

http://www.jti.com/files/1614/4196/3374/Mapp_rapport_JTI_EN.PDF